/* Régression */ ************************************************; Title1 h=3 j=l 'Régression'; Title2 h=2 j=l 'Effet prix et promotion (variable agrégée) '; footnote1 h=2 j=l 'Master Marketing Paris-Dauphine' ; footnote2 h=1 j=l 'Source: Analyse des données appliquée au marketing' j=r '(c)2007 Pierre Desmet '; data in ; input t Marche_indice Q1 Q2 P1 P2 TG1 TG2 RP1 RP2 ; QT=Q1+Q2 ; PR = P1/P2 ; /********************************************************* t période Marche_indice indice de la fréquentation du point de vente QT marché total colas Q1 marque1_vol Q2 marque2_volume P1 marque1_prix P2 marque2_prix TG1 mise en avant tête de gondole marque 1 TG2 mise en avant tête de gondole marque 2 *********************************************************/ cards ; 1 154.8 177.5 161.3 4.328 4.328 0 0 0.000 0.000 2 156.7 142.3 192.1 4.328 4.328 0 0 0.000 0.000 3 149.2 127.6 167.2 4.328 4.328 0 0 0.000 0.000 4 156.9 360.8 105.6 3.241 4.328 1 0 -1.087 0.000 5 159.8 379.9 151.1 3.241 4.328 1 0 -1.087 0.000 6 151.0 102.7 400.4 4.328 3.241 0 1 0.000 -1.087 7 151.3 124.7 460.5 4.328 3.241 0 1 0.000 -1.087 8 150.6 409.2 120.3 3.241 4.328 1 0 -1.087 0.000 9 175.8 404.8 151.1 3.241 4.328 1 0 -1.087 0.000 10 157.2 547.1 148.1 3.241 4.328 1 0 -1.087 0.000 11 152.7 99.7 658.5 4.328 3.263 0 1 0.000 -1.065 12 142.7 98.3 561.7 4.328 3.255 0 1 0.000 -1.073 13 173.3 536.8 202.4 3.241 4.328 1 0 -1.087 0.000 14 165.9 117.3 592.5 4.328 3.241 0 1 0.000 -1.087 15 162.7 114.4 639.5 4.328 3.241 0 1 0.000 -1.087 16 140.8 404.8 187.7 3.241 4.328 1 0 -1.087 0.000 17 151.0 529.5 209.7 3.241 4.328 1 0 -1.087 0.000 18 168.6 142.3 704.0 4.328 3.254 0 1 0.000 -1.074 19 165.7 780.3 198.0 3.154 4.328 1 0 -1.174 0.000 20 159.1 174.5 664.4 4.328 3.342 0 1 0.000 -0.986 21 157.7 184.8 550.0 3.241 3.434 0 1 -1.087 -0.894 22 187.1 838.9 265.5 3.001 4.328 1 0 -1.327 0.000 23 164.8 715.7 252.3 3.241 4.328 1 0 -1.087 0.000 24 153.0 243.5 242.0 4.328 4.459 0 0 0.000 0.000 25 145.5 215.6 574.9 4.328 3.570 0 1 0.000 -0.889 26 175.4 862.4 286.0 2.980 3.828 1 0 -1.348 -0.631 27 159.5 225.9 250.8 4.459 4.067 0 0 0.000 0.000 28 158.0 140.8 695.2 4.459 3.356 0 1 0.000 -0.711 29 143.5 155.5 695.2 4.459 3.380 0 1 0.000 -0.687 30 169.6 705.5 214.1 3.241 4.459 1 0 -1.218 0.000 31 173.2 736.3 224.4 3.345 4.459 1 0 -1.114 0.000 32 157.7 189.2 529.5 4.459 3.592 0 1 0.000 -0.867 33 155.6 140.8 783.2 4.459 3.343 0 1 0.000 -1.116 34 165.0 558.8 215.6 3.407 4.459 1 0 -1.052 0.000 35 176.6 626.3 186.3 3.552 4.459 1 0 -0.907 0.000 36 158.2 129.1 767.1 4.459 3.114 0 1 0.000 -1.345 37 157.8 149.6 774.4 4.459 3.108 0 1 0.000 -1.351 38 150.5 148.1 177.5 4.459 4.399 0 0 0.000 0.000 39 170.5 140.8 322.7 4.459 4.420 0 0 0.000 0.000 40 157.1 129.1 599.9 4.459 3.091 0 1 0.000 -1.329 41 148.6 132.0 577.9 4.459 3.142 0 1 0.000 -1.278 42 147.1 140.8 220.0 4.459 4.459 0 0 0.000 0.000 43 159.1 137.9 221.5 4.459 4.459 0 0 0.000 0.000 44 160.2 105.6 513.3 4.459 3.150 0 1 0.000 -1.309 45 142.0 586.7 170.1 3.219 4.459 1 0 -1.240 0.000 46 149.9 186.3 649.7 4.459 3.301 0 1 0.000 -1.158 47 140.4 126.1 312.4 4.459 3.612 0 1 0.000 -0.847 48 168.4 611.6 164.3 3.241 4.404 1 0 -1.218 0.000 49 153.5 154.0 463.5 4.445 3.326 0 1 0.000 -1.078 50 158.2 123.2 658.5 4.459 3.303 0 1 0.000 -1.101 51 158.1 635.1 167.2 3.241 4.459 1 0 -1.218 0.000 52 161.4 181.9 224.4 4.459 4.459 0 0 0.000 0.000 53 172.0 139.3 586.7 4.459 3.338 0 1 0.000 -1.121 54 162.6 115.9 547.1 4.459 3.316 0 1 0.000 -1.143 55 156.8 545.6 220.0 3.241 4.459 1 0 -1.218 0.000 56 155.7 164.3 623.3 4.459 3.642 0 1 0.000 -0.817 57 175.4 158.4 689.3 4.763 3.351 0 1 0.000 -1.108 58 161.9 462.0 243.5 3.821 4.690 1 0 -0.942 0.000 59 153.8 646.8 196.5 3.299 4.684 1 0 -1.464 0.000 60 156.7 171.6 695.2 4.490 3.337 0 1 0.000 -1.347 61 178.0 178.9 752.4 4.476 3.315 0 1 0.000 -1.369 62 158.2 594.0 234.7 3.297 4.763 1 0 -1.179 0.000 63 157.3 176.0 708.4 4.763 3.064 0 1 0.000 -1.699 64 157.9 500.1 305.1 3.428 3.609 1 0 -1.335 -1.154 65 173.2 426.8 413.6 3.324 3.574 1 1 -1.439 -1.189 66 169.0 442.9 422.4 3.326 3.617 1 1 -1.437 -1.146 67 177.9 338.8 683.5 3.577 2.904 1 0 -1.186 -1.859 68 150.2 262.5 416.5 3.589 2.875 1 0 -1.174 -1.888 69 139.9 376.9 266.9 3.407 3.645 0 0 -1.356 -1.118 70 173.0 435.6 331.5 3.528 3.672 0 0 -1.235 -1.091 71 180.8 384.3 442.9 3.347 3.575 1 0 -1.416 -1.188 72 155.5 152.5 529.5 4.763 3.318 0 1 0.000 -1.445 73 135.8 121.7 469.3 4.763 3.319 0 1 0.000 -1.444 74 150.0 466.4 178.9 3.456 4.763 1 0 -1.307 0.000 75 146.2 410.7 193.6 3.404 4.763 1 0 -1.359 0.000 76 145.1 145.2 495.7 4.763 3.308 0 1 0.000 -1.455 77 136.3 136.4 460.5 4.763 3.313 0 1 0.000 -1.450 78 145.4 156.9 353.5 4.763 4.056 0 1 0.000 -0.707 79 144.8 375.5 208.3 3.479 4.763 1 0 -1.284 0.000 ; proc gplot data=in; symbol1 i=join v=none; symbol2 i=join v=none; plot q1*t q2*t / overlay; plot qt*t marche_indice*t / overlay ; plot p1*t tg1*t / overlay ; plot p2*t tg2*t / overlay ; run; symbol1 i=join v=star; *******************************************************; * modele simple en volume ; ******************************************************; Proc REG data=in; var t ; modele1 : model Q1 = marche_indice P1 P2 TG1 TG2; plot q1*p. / caxis=red ctext=blue ; plot r.*p. / caxis=red ctext=blue; plot Q1*t / pred95 caxis=red ctext=blue; run ; Proc REG data=in; var t ; modele2 : model Q2 = marche_indice P1 P2 TG1 TG2; plot Q2*p. / pred95 caxis=red ctext=blue; run ; *******************************************************; * modele multiplicatif ; ******************************************************; data in; set in; LQ1=log(Q1); LQ2=log(Q2); LP1=log(P1); LP2=log(P2); LPR=log(PR); LIM=log(Marche_indice) ; Proc REG data=in; var t ; modele4 : model LQ1 = LIM LP1 LP2 TG1 TG2; modele5 : model LQ1 = LIM LPR TG1 TG2; plot LQ1*p. / pred95 caxis=red ctext=blue; run ; *******************************************************; * modele en part de marché ; ******************************************************; data in; set in; M1= Q1/QT ; M2= Q2/QT ; If TG1=1 and TG2=0 then TG1S=1; else TG1S=0; If TG1=0 and TG2=1 then TG2S=1; else TG2S=0; If TG1=1 and TG2=1 then TG12=1; else TG12=0; proc gplot data=in; symbol1 i=join v=none; symbol2 i=join v=none; plot m1*t m2*t / overlay; run; Proc REG data=in; var t ; modele6 : model M1 = PR TG1 TG2; modele7 : model M1 = PR TG1S TG2S TG12; run ; Proc REG data=in; modele8 : model QT = marche_indice TG1 TG2; plot qt*p. / pred95 caxis=red ctext=blue; * pred95 : intervalles de confiance à 95% sur les prédictions ; run ; *******************************************************; * modele différenciant prix et réduction de prix ; ******************************************************; data in; set in; PB1= P1-RP1 ; PB2= P2-RP2 ; RP1_solo=0; RP1_TG=0 ; TG1_solo=0; RP2_solo=0; RP2_TG=0 ; TG2_solo=0; if RP1 NE 0 and TG1=0 then RP1_solo=RP1 ; else if RP1 NE 0 and TG1=1 then RP1_TG=RP1 ; else if RP1 EQ 0 and TG1=1 then TG1_solo=1 ; if RP2 NE 0 and TG2=0 then RP2_solo=RP2 ; else if RP2 NE 0 and TG2=1 then RP2_TG=RP2 ; else if RP2 EQ 0 and TG2=1 then TG2_solo=1 ; Proc REG data=in; modele9 : model M1 = PB1 RP1 TG1 PB2 RP2 TG2 ; plot M1*p. / pred95 caxis=red ctext=blue; run ; Proc REG data=in; modele10 : model M1 = PB1 RP1_solo RP1_tg PB2 RP2_solo RP2_tg ; plot M1*p. / pred95 caxis=red ctext=blue; run ;